History of USA-Israel relationship exposed!

[Nannette]

That State Department opposed the establishment of the State of Israel, for fear of the impact in relations with the Arab states - which contained oil and crucial roads and air bases - and with the active Western power in the region, Britain, against the background of preparations for the third world war, against the Soviet Union. Thus Truman, on Jan. 16: "Had quite a day. (Look at schedule for this day, the day before and the day before that.) The Crown Prince of Arabia with his retinue and the Minister from his country to ours came in with the Secretary of State (Mr. Byrnes) and discussed Mid East Affairs at some length. Arabians are jealous of Syrians, Iraqis, Egyptians and Turks. They seem to like us but are suspicious of the British. They hate the Bolshiviks [sic]. It was an interesting talk."

Half a year later, on July 21, in an entry that suggested Truman had a certain prejudice, when the diary was originally made public, the president records a more vexatious experience. His interlocutor this time, during just 10 minutes, perhaps by phone, was not Faisal Ibn Saud or even the president of the World Zionist Organization, Chaim Weizmann, with whom Truman refused to meet, but the former secretary of the treasury, Henry Morgenthau, who spoke to him about illegal Jewish immigration to Palestine: "Had 10 minutes conversation with Henry Morgenthau about Jewish ship in Palistine [sic; the reference is to the "Exodus"]. Told him I would talk to Gen[eral] Marshall about it." Truman cut the conversation short.

He then added: "He'd no business, whatever to call me. The Jews have no sense of proportion nor do they have any judgment on world affairs. Henry brought a thousand Jews to New York on a supposedly temporary basis and they stayed ... The Jews, I find are very, very selfish. They care not how many Estonians, Latvians, Finns, Poles, Yugoslavs or Greeks get murdered or mistreated as D[isplaced] P[ersons] as long as the Jews get special treatment. Yet when they have power, physical, financial or political neither Hitler nor Stalin has anything on them for cruelty or mistreatment to the under dog. Put an underdog on top and it makes no difference whether his name is Russian, Jewish, Negro, Management, Labor, Mormon, Baptist he goes haywire. I've found very, very few who remember their past condition when prosperity comes."

7,000 gloomy words

As if this wasn't enough, ahead of the elections in 1948, the 16th year of consecutive Democratic control of the White House - with the growing prospect of a Republican victory; with Truman needing Congressional support for the Marshall Plan to save Western Europe, as well as Marshall's political support; and with the State Department aligning with the new Defense Department, created that year, on the side of the National Security Council, the Atomic Energy Commission and the U.S. Air Force, which had been granted independence from the land forces - the CIA, also a new creation of the updated defense establishment, added its voice to the others and warned of an imminent calamity in Palestine.

On November 28, 1947, the day before the United Nations General Assembly vote on the partition plan for Palestine, secret document ORE 55 (of the CIA's Office of Reports and Estimates) was disseminated among the highest officials of the administration (the document can be found on the CIA Web site). Entitled "The Consequences of the Partition of Palestine," it contains 7,000 gloomy words about the dangers latent in a two-state solution with economic unity and Jerusalem as a separate body (this was the majority proposal put forward by the UN Special Committee on Palestine, UNSCOP, which was put to the vote; the one-state solution was the minority proposal).

"Armed hostilities between Jews and Arabs will break out if the UN General Assembly accepts the plan to partition Palestine into Jewish and Arab states as recommended by UNSCOP. Inflamed by nationalism and religious fervor, Arabs in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Transjordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well as Palestine are determined to fight against any force, or combination of forces, which attempts to set up a Jewish state in Palestine. While the governments of the Arab states are not expected to make official declarations of war, they will not attempt to keep their people (especially fanatical tribesmen) from joining the battle, they may even encourage such action and furnish clandestine assistance as well.

"In composition, the Arab forces will vary from relatively well-controlled quasi-military bands to the loose tribal organization of nomads. The largest number actively engaged against the Jews at any one time will probably be between 100,000 and 200,000. The Arabs are good guerrilla fighters, and they will be well supplied with small arms and will also undoubtedly obtain some planes and tanks.

"The Zionists, for their part, are determined to have a state in Palestine or, in the view of extreme elements, all of Palestine and Transjordan as well. Whatever the UN recommends, they will attempt to establish a Jewish state after the British withdrawal (now set by the British for August 1948). The Jews are expected to be able to mobilize some 200,000 fighters in Palestine, supplemented to a limited extent by volunteers and recruits from abroad. The Jewish armed groups in Palestine are well equipped and well trained in commando tactics. Initially, they will achieve marked success over the Arabs because of superior organization and equipment. As the war of attrition develops, however, the Jewish economy (severely strained by mobilization) will break down; furthermore, the Jews will be unable continuously to protect their extended supply lines and isolated settlements or to plant and cultivate their fields in the face of constant harassing, `hit-and-run' Arab attacks. Without substantial outside aid in terms of manpower and material, they will be able to hold out no longer than two years."

This, then, was the estimate of the balance of forces, as intelligence is obliged to provide and, as a between-the-lines addition, also the policy being proposed to Truman: to oppose in practice the State of Israel's establishment and to deny it, via an embargo, aid in the form of fighters, weapons and money.

"The U.S., by supporting partition, has already lost much of its prestige in the Near East," the CIA evaluators stated, adding: "In the event that partition is imposed in Palestine, the resulting conflict will seriously disturb the social, economic, and political stability of the Arab world, and U.S. commercial and strategic interests will be dangerously jeopardized." This is due to the division of labor between "irresponsible tribesmen and fanatic Moslems haphazardly blowing up parts of the oil pipelines and attacking occasional Americans," and "responsible governments [that] will refuse to sign pipeline conventions, oil concessions, civil air agreements and trade pacts." Development projects "which are necessary to raise the standard of living cannot be carried through without U.S. assistance and guidance. With the U.S. committed to partition, such developments will be shelved indefinitely."

As though this were not enough, partition, in the CIA's view, was liable to generate a direct American-Soviet clash, precisely when the Jewish adamancy to establish a state was tilting the inter-bloc equation to Washington's detriment. "If the UN recommends partition, it will be morally bound to take steps to enforce partition, with the major powers acting as instruments of enforcement. The dangerous potentialities of such a development to U.S.-Arab and U.S.-U.S.S.R. relations need no emphasis."

`Political suicide'

This was the gist of the message, which was bolstered with additional assertions and warnings. "Arab nationalism is the strongest political force in the Arab world. It grew up in secret societies under Ottoman rule, came out into the open in the Arab Revolt of World War I, and has been the major factor in the independence movement in the Arab world ever since ... Palestinian independence is, consequently, the major aim not only of the Palestinian Arabs but also of Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis, Transjordanians, Egyptians and Saudi Arabians. It would be political suicide for any Arab government to ignore this situation ... Despite the fact that Jews and Arabs have lived peaceably side by side, determination to make Palestine an Arab country is strong in all of the Arab states, from the more educated and ambitious classes down to the poorest and most politically naive peasants. Arab national fervor is so explosive and pervasive a force that Arab government officials who recognize the political implications involved in flouting a UN decision will nevertheless have to oppose any decision for partition or run the risk of losing office.

"The Arab governments are probably as greatly influenced by religious pressures as they are by nationalist pressures. The Arabs are capable of a religious fanaticism, which when coupled with political aspirations is an extremely powerful force. Whether or not the Arab governments are capable of guiding this force is difficult to judge."

In its assessment of the possible modes of operation, the CIA (which after May 15, 1948, turned out to have been wrong) anticipated that the Arab governments would make do with sending "volunteers" and would refrain from declaring war and invading, though "it is probable that large numbers of Arabs from the surrounding countries will join the Arabs residing within Palestine for the war against Zionism." It was predicted that the Arabs would fight both the Jews and the international police force that will try to stabilize Palestine following the termination of the British Mandate.

"In the event of partition," the CIA report cautioned, "the lives of the million Jews throughout the Arab world (including Palestine) will be imperiled. The lower element in the population would look forward to attacks on Jewish quarters because of the excellent opportunity for looting - as illustrated at the time of the Baghdad revolt in 1941 when the Jewish quarter was attacked. A representative of the Jewish Agency has stated that in the event of partition the 400,000 Jews in the Arab states outside Palestine may have to be sacrificed in the interest of the Jewish community as a whole."

Despite the internal tensions within the Jewish community, "it can be expected that all Jewish groups in Palestine will join forces against the Arabs in defense of the newly formed Jewish state ... In the long run no Zionist in Palestine will be satisfied with the territorial arrangements of the partition settlement. Even the more conservative of the Zionists will hope to attain the whole of the Nejeb [sic], Western Galilee, the city of Jerusalem, and eventually all of Palestine. The extremists demand not only all of Palestine but Transjordan as well. They have stated that they will refuse to recognize the validity of any Jewish government which will settle for anything less, and will probably take aggressive action to achieve their ends.

"The Zionists will continue to wage a strong propaganda campaign in the U.S. and Europe. The `injustice' of the proposed Jewish boundaries will be exaggerated, and the demand for more territory will be made as Jewish immigration floods the Jewish sector. In the chaos which will follow the implementation of partition, atrocities will undoubtedly be committed by Arab fanatics; such actions will be given wide publicity and will even be exaggerated by Jewish propaganda. The Arabs will be accused of aggression, whatever the actual circumstances may be. This propaganda campaign will doubtless continue to influence the U.S. public, and the U.S. government may, consequently, be forced into actions which will further complicate and embitter its relations with the entire Arab world."

The balance of forces was estimated by the CIA to be about equal at the start: "The Arabs will have large numbers of replacements ... The Jews will be well equipped, but it is doubtful whether the amount of ammunition they have on hand will be sufficient for a long campaign."

Under the proposed partition plan, "the Jewish sections ... will be vulnerable to attack by the Arabs." One of the "major difficulties facing the Jews will be the large number of Arabs within Jewish territory (in the northeast Jewish sector, for instance, there are some 72,700 Arabs as opposed to 44,700 Jews) ... The Jews will be forced to expend a large proportion of their forces in static defense of isolated villages or colonies ... Furthermore, many units will have to be used to convoy supply caravans ... The Zionist colonies are estimated to have sufficient stores of food for a month's supply. Owing to the fact that many agricultural laborers will be engaged in combat and that Arab attacks will prevent cultivation of the fields, the Jews will have difficulty in producing food. Moreover, mobilization over a long period of time will so strain the manpower of the Jewish community that its economy will collapse unless large numbers of immigrants and substantial material assistance are supplied from abroad."

The CIA report estimated "that support of Jewish armed forces by U.S. private organizations will be on the order of, or somewhat greater than, similar support of U.S. citizens for government forces in the Spanish Civil War."

The CIA noted that "since half the population of the Jewish state proposed by UNSCOP will be Arab, the Arabs will have a ready-made `fifth column' in enemy territory." The authors of the report did not foresee the victories by the Israel Defense Forces and the emergence of the refugee problem, whether due to flight or expulsion. In conclusion, the report again warned president Truman that it is "highly probable" that "the attempt of the Jews to establish a Jewish state" based on the partition plan will generate a clash. The fighting will become more intense and initially the Jews will achieve successes, but "the Arabs will gradually coordinate their war effort, the Jews will be forced to withdraw from isolated positions, and having been drawn into a war of partition will gradually be defeated." If they are unable to bring in significant external aid in the form of equipment and manpower, "the Jews will be able to hold out no longer than two years."

Rear Admiral Roscoe Hillenkoetter, the CIA chief at the time, has long since been forgotten. He did his job by submitting the assessment, and from that moment on, responsibility passed to the president. If Truman had chosen to strangle Israel at birth, in light of the recommendation of his darling Secretary of State Marshall, and in the spirit of the CIA report, he would not have had to face any commission of inquiry. Only the judgment of history.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/492053.html
http://www.trumanlibrary.org/diary/transcript.htm
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He who is merciful with the cruel, will end-up being cruel to the merciful
- Kohelet Rabba 7:16